Dynamics and Regional Features of Labour Market Recovery During COVID-19

The imbalance between labour supply and demand, both by types of economic activity and by professional groups, differs in Russian regional labour markets, causing long-term unemployment and impoverishment of the population. The article examines the transformation of the labour market, regional characteristics of market failures and its recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on sample surveys of the labour force conducted by the Federal State Statistics Service, we determined monthly unemployment dynamics and, subsequently, the vulnerability and instability of regional labour markets. It is hypothesised that the stronger the contraction of employment and the greater the unemployment, the longer the process of labour market recovery during the pandemic;regions recover from the crisis at different speeds. Indicators of the intensity of labour market failures and its recovery are proposed. Since the pandemic is a peculiar phenomenon that affected the economy and society, human behaviour in the labour market, the concept of excessive unemployment was used (the difference between actual unemployment and its pre-pandemic level). We performed a correlation analysis of the relations between labour market failures and its recovery in four groups of regions characterised by different labour market fluctuations. The calculated Spearman's coefficients showed a positive relationship between the indicators. The depth of labour market failures and its recovery rate in regions with developed infrastructure, attracting labour migrants, are revealed. A positive relationship was established between the unemployment dynamics and the increase in vacancy rate reported by employers to employment agencies, increase in the average monthly salary. This article presents the results of the first research stage. Further studies will expand the time series of employment and unemployment in order to identify long-term trends and build a forecasting model. © 2023 Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Local Labour Market Outcomes of Educational Migration

Thus far, the majority of studies have focused on international student migration. Less attention has been paid to internal migration for tertiary education and even less to local effects caused by this category of migration. To redress this limitation, the paper determines the most important consequences of internal migration for university enrolment in the local labour market of a university city. This is shown through the example of the Polish university city with one of the highest student-to-population ratios - Opole. The study is based on the literature review and the result of qualitative and quantitative research conducted in Opole. The first was conducted among students and the second among owners and employees of local enterprises. Findings of the research suggest that the inflow of students to the university city can lead to shortrun and long-run effects on the local economy. Findings of the research suggest that in the short run the inflow of students to the university city leads to structurally important changes in the labour supply and creates new jobs. In the long run, it leads to permanent changes in labour resources, attracts investors to the city and causes permanent changes in the labour demand. The analysed outcomes of migration for tertiary education are only a small but vital part of the consequences of education migration. The global spread of the coronavirus has also stressed the importance of educational migrants in university cities. The impact of pandemic COVID-19 on university cities should be the subject of future research.

Robotization and labour demand in post-pandemic era: Microeconomic evidence from China

We study how robotization, namely the "machine substitution” policy, impacts firms' labour demand in the post pandemic era. Using a unique firm-level data set of online job postings in Dongguan, known as "The World Factory” in China, we find that "machine substitution” policy fosters the funded firms to expand their labour demand. The expansion is mainly driven by the growing demand for manufacturing workers, which offsets the reduced demand for service workers. Also, the expansion can be attributed to an increase in the number of employees listed in job postings rather than an increase in position types. Further analysis suggests that this positive impact is mainly attributable to the productivity effect rather than the restatement effect. Furthermore, there is no evidence of heterogeneity by sector or firm size but the effect of the policy varies by regional epidemic severity. Our results not only reveal the labour demand in the Covid-19 but also provide prominent implications for occupational security and steady economic growth. © 2023 Elsevier Inc.

Labour demand in the time of post-COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the labour market in ways that have proved difficult for economists to predict. Early studies suggested that labour demand ‘collapsed'. This initial forecast proved to be overly alarmist, due to the short-run view. We find that labour demand has rebounded sharply, though an aberration has appeared in recent months. Using what is believed to be a near-universe of online jobs postings, we demonstrate that while total job postings are up 43% from pre-pandemic levels, only one-tenth of that increase is driven by increases in new postings. This suggests that the growth in job postings in the labour market is being driven by jobs that are remaining unfilled. Labour force participation has dropped to levels not seen since the 1970s, while unemployment claims have mirrored other recent economic downturns. Combined, these two measures account for almost all the remaining jobs shed during the recent economic downturn. Analysing the characteristics of these job postings, we find a decrease in required skills and salary compared to the pre-pandemic periods. Individuals appear unwilling to re-enter the labour market, likely because of the quality of jobs currently available, leading to an overall labour shortage.

Implications of Covid-19 for Labour and Employment in India.

The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed the world into an unprecedented crisis and uncertainty, calling to expedite the implementation of the Centenary Declaration. It called upon constituents to pursue 'with unrelenting vigour its [ILO] constitutional mandate for social justice by further developing its human centred approach to the future of work'. It called for putting workers' rights and the needs, aspirations and rights of all people at the heart of economic, social and environmental policies. The international community and ILO's constituents have engaged in a collective endeavour to tackle the devastating human impact of the pandemic, but more is needed.

The Challenges for Labour Market Policy during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a dramatic economic impact in most countries. In the UK, it has led to sharp falls in labour demand in many sectors of the economy and to initial acute labour shortages in other sectors. Much more than in a typical downturn, the current crisis is not simply a general slowdown in economic activity but also a radical short-term shift in the mix of economic activities - of which an unknown, but possibly significant, amount will be persistent. The initial policy response has focused on cushioning the blow to families' finances and allowing the majority of workers and firms to resume their original activities once the crisis subsides. These are crucial priorities. But there should also be a focus on reallocating some workers, either temporarily if working in shut-down sectors or permanently by facilitating transitions to sectors and jobs offering better prospects and facing labour shortages. The phasing-out of the furlough subsidies, which is projected to happen in Autumn 2020, brings this into even sharper focus since the alternative for many workers will be unemployment. Active labour market policy will need to be front and centre.